THE IMPACT OF LAND USE AND LAND COVERCHANGES ON URBAN FLOOD VULNERABILITY IN KIGALI CITY (2000-2025)
Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists Kigali, Rwanda.
* Corresponding Author: Email: ebigirabagabo@gmail.com
Research Article
International Journal of Life Science Research Archive, 2026, 11(02), 069–082.
Article DOI: 10.53771/ijlsra.2026.11.2.0071
Publication history:
Received on 27July 2026; revised on 15 October 2026; accepted on 17 October 2026
Abstract:
This thesis assessed land use and land cover (LULC) changes and their impact on urban flood vulnerability in Kigali City between 2000 and 2025. Using GIS, remote sensing and statistical trend analysis, the study analysed multi-temporal changes in built-up land, forest, wetlands, agriculture and other land-cover classes, and related these changes to mapped flood-conditioning factors and flood-risk surfaces. Results indicate a pronounced expansion of built-up land from 6,500.00 ha in 2000 to 40,067.87 ha in 2025, representing approximately 55% of Kigali City's mapped area in 2025. Wetlands also increased from 2,100.00 ha in 2000 to 4,200.00 ha in 2025, while agriculture and forest generally declined over the study period. The corrected LULC series shows that the 2000 and 2005 map outputs were harmonized to avoid the apparent decline of built-up land between these two dates. Flood-related mapping identified elevated hazard, vulnerability and risk in valley-bottom environments and along major drainage corridors, particularly where urban expansion overlapped with wetlands and floodplains. Exploratory statistical analysis showed a strong inverse relationship between built-up land and agriculture (r = -0.858), while the relationship between built-up land and wetlands was positive (r = 0.746), reflecting the mapped increase and restoration/inundation of wetland areas during the same period. The findings demonstrate that LULC changes have materially influenced urban flood vulnerability in Kigali by increasing impervious surfaces, altering runoff pathways and changing the spatial distribution of natural buffers. The study recommends stronger wetland protection, improved storm-water infrastructure, and integration of flood-risk information into urban planning and development control.
Keywords:
GIS; Hydrological processes; Land use and land cover; Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; Remote sensing; Urban flood
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