THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON MILK PRODUCTION AMONG DAIRY FARMERS IN RWANDA, CASE STUDY ON SELECTED COOPERATIVES IN GICUMBI DISTRICT
Faculty of Environmental Studies, University of Lay Adventists Kigali, Rwanda.
* Corresponding Author: Email: smukamana@gmail.com.
Research Article
International Journal of Life Science Research Archive, 2026, 11(02), 001–019.
Article DOI: 10.53771/ijlsra.2026.11.2.0054
Publication history:
Received on 06June 2026; revised on 15 October 2026; accepted on 17 October 2026
Abstract:
In Rwanda, smallholder dairy farmers are increasingly experiencing the effects of changing weather patterns, which influence pasture availability, water resources, and milk production. Gicumbi District, known for its dairy farming potential, has experienced noticeable fluctuations in rainfall and temperature, yet limited empirical evidence existed on how these climatic changes affect milk production among dairy farmers. This study assessed the impact of climate variability on milk production among dairy farmers in selected cooperatives in Gicumbi District, Rwanda. The study employed a cross-sectional research design using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Data were collected from 313 dairy farmers selected from a population of 1,442 cooperative members through structured questionnaires, key informant interviews, meteological data and documentary review. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation, and regression analysis with the help of SPSS, while qualitative data were analyzed thematically. The findings revealed that Gicumbi District is experiencing significant climate variability characterized by irregular rainfall patterns, delayed rainfall onset, early cessation, uneven rainfall distribution, and increasing temperatures. About 86.6% of respondents observed changes in rainfall patterns, while 81.8% reported changes in temperature, with 63.3% specifically indicating increasing heat levels. Milk production among dairy farmers was found to be moderate and highly seasonal, with most farmers producing between 5 and 10 liters of milk per cow per day. Production levels increased during rainy seasons due to improved pasture and water availability and declined sharply during dry seasons because of feed scarcity and water shortages. Regression analysis established a statistically significant relationship between climate variability and milk production (R = 0.589, R² = 0.347). Rainfall variability (B = -0.421, p < 0.001) and temperature variability (B = -0.318, p < 0.001) were found to have significant negative effects on milk production. The study concludes that climate variability significantly affects dairy productivity in Gicumbi District and threatens the sustainability of smallholder dairy farming systems. The study recommends the promotion of climate-smart dairy farming practices, improved pasture and water management, access to drought-resistant fodder and improved dairy breeds, strengthened extension services, and enhanced institutional support and climate information systems.
Keywords:
Adaptation Strategies, Climate Variability, Dairy Farmers, Gicumbi District, Milk Production, Rwanda
Full text article in PDF:
Copyright information:
Copyright © 2026 Author(s) retain the copyright of this article. This article is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Liscense 4.0